Haida Group (002311): Aquaculture giants ready to set off

Haida Group (002311): Aquaculture giants ready to set off

The upward trend in pig prices is superimposed on the high level of poultry chain, maintaining the “Buy” rating. African swine fever has accelerated the elimination of pig production capacity, increased competition in 武汉夜网论坛 feed companies, and long-term positive increase in the market share of pig feed in Haida Group.With high economic growth, the company’s poultry feed business is expected to maintain high growth.

We expect the company’s EPS to be 1 in 2019-20.


46 yuan (previous average 1).


83 yuan), and forecast the company’s EPS in 2021.

76 yuan, giving the company a PE estimate of 35-37 times in 2019, the corresponding target price is 40.


92 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Baima Haida, a multi-cycle farming and animal husbandry company, started as a premix of aquatic products. After more than 20 years of development, it has transformed into a comprehensive agricultural and animal husbandry group covering six major sectors of feed, seed, animal health products, healthy farming and healthy food.

Among them, the company’s core business is the production and sales of feed. In 2008-18, the company’s annual compound growth in feed sales was as high as 22.

08%, far exceeding the average growth rate of the industry.

According to the data from China Feed Industry Association, Haida Group ranks among the top three in the country in terms of feed sales, and is a leader in aquatic products. Livestock and poultry feed are also among the top ten in the industry.

Deciphering the growth path of Haida’s feed enterprises and managers We believe that Haida’s growth from aquatic premixes to feed enterprises is mainly due to the following: aquatic materials, 1) the company takes the lead in providing farmers with full breeding solutions,Effectively enhanced customer stickiness; 2) The company has been cultivating the aquatic products market for many years, the products have been constantly changing and competing, and the leading position is stable; 3) The change of market substitution has been timely grasped, and the structure of aquatic products has been optimized.

In terms of poultry materials, 1) the company’s excellent procurement capacity building cost barriers; 2) continued high R & D to promote the creation of product moats.

In terms of pig feed, the key to the rapid development of Haida’s pig feed business and the similarity of aquatic feeds are the same. The main reason is to open up the service chain, provide full-process supporting services for farmers, and increase the stickiness of farmers.

Unchecked points: feed company giant Heng Qiang, large number of pigs quickly release feed company giant Heng Qiang, 1) pig feed, affected by the non-plague epidemic, the scale of pig breeding has accelerated, and the company’s market share in pig feedUpgrade; 2) aquatic materials, benefit from the consumption upgrade bonus, strong demand for special aquatic products, we judge that the company is expected to introduce super user stickiness to optimize the product structure; 3) poultry materials, we judge, the proportion of chicken meat in the consumption of meat productsIt will be further improved, and the company is expected to realize the cost-effective advantages of poultry and livestock and realize the rapid growth of poultry and animal sales.

The rapid release of hog production capacity is a key part of Haida’s healthy food industry chain. It is a key business segment of the company. The auxiliary materials are supported by cash flow. We judge that the company’s hog production capacity promotes rapid release and becomes the next favorablegrowth point.

The top of the faucet is stable, and the “buy” grade African swine fever epidemic continues to ferment. The live pig inventory has repeatedly hit record lows. We have reduced the company’s feed sales in 2019-20 to 1276/1492 feed (previous output 1280/1575 mortality), and forecastIn 2021, there will be 1,733 feed sales.

Accordingly, we expect the company’s EPS to be 1 in 2019-20.


46 yuan (previous average 1).


83 yuan), and forecast an EPS of 1 in 2021.

76 yuan.

With reference to the 28XPE estimates of comparable companies in 2019, taking into account the company’s leader’s additional stability, we give the company 35-37 times the PE estimate, and the corresponding target price is 40.


92 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: risks of natural disasters and epidemics, fluctuations in raw material prices, and pig prices rising less than expected.

Wuliangye (000858) semi-annual report review: Tianshi Renhe, volume and price go up

Wuliangye (000858) semi-annual report review: Tianshi Renhe, volume and price go up

Matters: The company released its 19-year interim report. In 1H19, it achieved a total operating income of 27.2 billion yuan, an increase of 26 over the same period.

8%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is 93.

4 percent, an increase of 31 per year.


Among them, 2Q19 achieved a total operating income of 95.

60,000 yuan, an annual increase of 27.

1%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies28.

60,000 yuan, an annual increase of 33.


Ping An’s point of view: 2Q19 revenue, net profit growth is slightly higher than market revenue, profit is about 25%, 30% expected.

It is estimated that the 1H19 report confirms that 北京桑拿洗浴保健 Wuliangye Wine sales have increased by about 15-20%, and the average price has risen in the high single digits.

In the first half of the year, the company’s liquor revenue increased by 25.

5% to 254 trillion, non-alcoholic income increased by 49.

3% to 17.

300 million yuan.

Combined with grassroots research, assuming that the series of wines has maintained an 18-year growth rate, it is expected that Wuliangye wine revenue will increase by 25-30%.

The sales volume increased by 15-20%, which may benefit from three factors. First, the price of Maotai liquor continued to rise, and Wuliangye liquor’s cost-effectiveness advantage became more prominent. Second, the reform of the winery’s sales system was rapidly promoted, and the number of dealers was expanded.It is the strength of the product mix, Pu Wu, 1618, low, 成都桑拿网 gold, and cups should grow for a long time.

Benefiting from 1618, the low price, the rising price of the Pu Five and the expected growth rate are lowered. It is estimated that the average price of Wuliangye Wine’s financial statements will rise by a number of medium and high. The average price increase in 2H19 is expected to increase.

The balance of advance receipts in the second quarter of 1943.

50,000 yuan each year, respectively, down by 0.

600 million, 500 million. Considering that the company began to replace monthly payments in June, the caliber of advance payment was not comparable, and the amount was not abnormal.

The gross profit margin increased, and the expense ratio decreased steadily.

1H19 gross margin rose 0 in ten years.

97Pct, of which the gross profit margin of alcohol increased by more than 1.

63Pct should benefit from the increase in average price and the decline in the rate of increase.

The sales tax and surcharge ratio, sales expense ratio, and management expense ratio are reduced to 0, respectively.

08, 0.

3, 0.

72Pct, which should mainly benefit from scale effects, is basically normal.

Tianshirenhe, volume and price go up.

In 19 years, the number of Moutai dealers decreased by about 25-30%. Moutai liquor remained at a low level, and the increase in approval prices exceeded expectations, providing an excellent external environment for Wuliangye reform.

Wuliangye Distillery accelerated the reform, expanded the timing, and vigorously attracted high-quality dealer resources. 1H19 cooperative operators, specialty stores, and KA totaled nearly 2,400, which significantly exceeded the number of Moutai liquor dealers.Opportunity, strong push for channel breakthroughs, the most stringent market supervision history, cut low-priced high-imitation products, and promote the development of product prices are also real guns, directly driving the July and August general five batch prices continue to rise rapidly, the current oneThe gross profit of Pingwu has reached about 80-120 yuan, and dealer confidence has been restored.

In fact, Moutai is still controlling the quantity and price, and the external time is still good. The internal product mix of Wuliangye Winery and the reform of the sales system have basically been completed. The stakeholders of the channel have also been adjusted.Qi Sheng.
Upgrade performance forecast and maintain “Recommended” rating.

Considering that the outlook for volume and price rises is higher than expected, the EPS in 19 and 20 is raised by about 0.

4%, 13% to 4.

55, 5.

69 yuan, an increase of about 31 in ten years.9%, 25.

1%, dynamic PE is about 31.


9 times, maintaining the “recommended” level.

Risk reminders: 1) Downside risk of liquor industry.

The spirit of the liquor industry is highly correlated with the price trend. If the price of liquor drops, it may lead to a significant increase in corporate revenue.

2) Leader change easily leads to business fluctuation risks.

Liquor companies are greatly affected by business strategies, such as mergers and acquisitions, which may lead to corporate revenue and significant changes in profits.

3) Policy risks.

The liquor industry demand, tax rate, etc. are affected by policy changes. If related policies change, it may transform corporate revenue and profit may have a conversion impact.

ICBC (601398) Quarterly Report Review: Debt-side Costs Continue to Rise

ICBC (601398) Quarterly Report Review: Debt-side Costs Continue to Rise

On October 26, 2019, ICBC announced its third quarter results for 2019.

Key 杭州桑拿网 points of investment: Profit before provision increases by 19%, and risk assets are expected to increase by 6.

9%: The operating income of the first three quarters of 2019 was 646.9 billion yuan, an increase of 12 year-on-year.

1%, realized pre-provision profit of 450.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.

1%, net profit attributable to mothers was 251.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%.

The balance of deposits increased by 9 from the beginning of the year.

15%, loan budget increased by 8 compared with the beginning of the year.

05%, the risk assets are expected to grow by 8 per year.


In the third quarter of 2019, the net interest margin in the single quarter decreased by 1BP month-on-month: The expansion of the net interest margin month-on-month is expected to be related to the increase in the cost of the liability side and the faster expansion of the asset side than the resistance side.

The average return on the asset side in the third quarter was 3.

62%, an increase of 4 BP from the second quarter.

Debt-end deposits increased by 1% month-on-month and other debts decreased month-on-month, but the comprehensive cost is still on the rise, and the comprehensive cost ratio has risen to 1.

71%, an increase of 5 BP from the second quarter.

In the third quarter, new loans totaled 389.3 billion yuan, of which 49.

6% comes from retail loans. From the data of the third quarter, the proportion of retail loans in supplementary credit increased, and the proportion of corporate loans and bills business increased.

Resources are tilted towards the retail business, helping to implement a robust expansion.

In the first three quarters, net fee income increased by 9 per year.

6%, a slight decrease in growth rate: due to the rapid growth of other non-interest income, the growth rate of comprehensive non-interest income achieved 14.

4% growth rate.

Third quarter NPL ratio 1.

44%, a decrease of 4BP from the previous month and an earlier decrease of 8BP: In the first three 四川耍耍网 quarters of the previous quarter, the non-performing net generation rate was 0.

6%, down 6 BP from the second quarter.

Provision coverage in the third quarter continued to increase, reaching 198.

09%, up 6 digits from the second quarter.

Profit forecast and investment advice: ICBC’s overall performance has maintained steady growth and asset quality has continued to improve.

The cost of deposits on the debt side has risen rapidly, and the company’s current PB estimate for 2019-2020 is zero.

83 times, 0.

76 times, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Risk factors: The economic recession is better than expected; the market decline presents systemic risks.

Changchun High-tech (000661) company research: 2019 performance significantly exceeds expected growth Hormones continue to grow at high levels

Changchun High-tech (000661) company research: 2019 performance significantly exceeds expected growth Hormones continue to grow at high levels
Event: The company issued a 2019 performance forecast, and the 2019 performance forecast was 16.1-18.100 million (Margin of minority shareholders 29.5% of the shares began to be consolidated in November), and the annual growth rate was 60% -80% (10 years in 18 years.06 trillion return to the mother’s net profit as a base, not fully comparable caliber), EPS is about 9.32 yuan / share -10.48 yuan / share.  We expect Jinsai’s performance to increase by about 69%, again exceeding expectations: we have a median of 17 based on the company’s forecast performance.10,000 yuan, and the democratic company disclosed the net profit of Kinsey from January to October 16.150,000 yuan, the introduction of our model calculation, Kinsey’s 2019 performance of 19.400 million US dollars, an annual increase of 69%, which clearly exceeded market expectations, of which net profit was achieved from November to December 3.2.5 billion.We used to point out that the performance of the Golden Race in the company’s core logic may exceed expectations. The average monthly net profit in November-December was the same as the average level in the previous ten months, indicating that there was no significant increase in expenses in the end, and profitability was further enhanced.  We expect Gaoxin’s annual results to grow by approximately 67%.Median performance based on announcement 17.1ppm (including November, December 99.5% Jinsai consolidated net profit), we extrapolated the Jinsai performance and growth rate, calculated according to the 2019 coexisting table caliber, Changchun High-tech will achieve 21 in 2019.Net profit of 800 million US dollars, a growth rate of 67% (comparable caliber theoretical value, actual consolidation from November 2019).  The growth hormone business still has broad prospects, and the overall leader is solid. Long-acting growth hormone is expected to be heavy: According to the latest estimates in the December 22, 2019 weekly report, the current potential global growth hormone market is 103.7 billion, with a penetration rate of only 5 in 19 years.5%, the future will reach more than 15 billion (15% penetration rate) market size error breakthroughs, new applications such as adult growth hormone and the need to expand the number of consumer groups, the ceiling is not yet visible in the short term; using growth hormone powder injection, waterThe combination of needle and long-acting dosage forms, as well as the terminal layout, product reputation and quality control advantages accumulated over the years, the company is not afraid of the challenges of other growth hormone companies in the domestic market. Long-term heavy volume is expected to drive the overall scale of the business.  Jinsai’s performance commitment period is highly deterministic and may exceed expectations: Kinsey’s commitment to 19-21 year performance growth is not 杭州龙凤桑拿网 less than 37.64% / 25.03% / 19.10%.After the consolidation of Kinsey, it almost became a wholly-owned subsidiary of Gaoxin. Jin Lei became the company’s second largest shareholder, and its performance is expected to be further released. The high growth trend of growth hormone in 19 years indicates that the growth rate of performance commitment is only a guarantee.Recombinant follicle stimulating hormone is expected to double in 19 years. It is entering the harvest period. Intensive deployment of monoclonal antibodies and chemical drugs. The product pipeline is continuously enriched, business structure is optimized, and growth hormone is continuously replaced.  Collecting and collecting is more emotional disturbance: the amount of “horizontal purchase” of growth hormone in Shenyang, Henan is only about 2 million yuan, and the plan is of limited significance. The main growth energy of the company’s growth hormone is water injection and long-term effect, and it mainly depends on autonomyConsumption-driven, high proportion of out-of-hospital markets; the main goal of national drug volume procurement is to save medical insurance funds. For water injection and long-term effects, the probability of national volume procurement is very small.  Profit forecast: According to the November 2019 consolidation of Kingsoft, the issued caliber of the shares will be increased. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in 2019-2021 will be 17 respectively.200 million, 28.700 million, 37.400 million; EPS is 8.49 yuan, 14.20 yuan, 18.47 yuan, corresponding PE is 52x, 31x, 24x.If it is assumed that Kinsey will be consolidated for the whole of 2019, the company’s performance in 19 is expected to be 21.800 million, 19/20 comparable caliber growth rate of 67%, 32%, corresponding to PE 41 / 31X after the issuance; 20 years of PEG is less than 1, the cost performance is outstanding, maintain “Buy” rating.  Risk warning: assets are destroyed; new product listing and promotion progress is less than expected; the impact of changes in industry regulatory policies on the company; risks of products under development are not as expected

Shenhuo (000933): 18 years of performance under pressure after the increase in electrolytic aluminum business profit improvement

Shenhuo (000933): 18 years of performance under pressure after the increase in electrolytic aluminum business profit improvement
In 2018, the level of net profit attributable to mothers decreased 武汉夜网论坛 by 35%. After deducting non-performance, the company’s income in 2018 improved to $ 18.8 billion, which was replaced by zero.34%, net profit attributable to mother 2.39 ‰, 35 from the previous decade.11%, net profit after deduction is possible22.US $ 7.9 billion, non-recurring gains and losses are mainly the disposal of non-current assets27.US $ 8.5 billion, the company’s highest profit mainly comes from the production and sales of coal, the decline in sales of aluminum products, the rise in the price of raw materials alumina, and the company’s accrual13.$ 500 million in asset impairment losses. 2019Q1: Revenue 45.54 ppm, 10-year average3.36%, net profit attributable to mother 0.55 ‰, 20 years ago.27%. Coal business: production and sales are reduced by 10% annually, 14.7% for 18 years: The company’s coal business income 杭州桑拿 for 18 years is 40.0 million yuan, an increase of 0 in ten years.1%.Raw coal production is estimated at 564, which will be downgraded in ten years.0%; commercial coal sales of 548 attachments, downgraded by 14 each year.7%, mainly due to the suspension of production at Xuehu Mine, 729 yuan per ton of coal, an increase of 17.3%. Aluminum product business: The price of raw material alumina has risen, and the cost of electricity in Xinjiang has increased. The company’s 18-year production and sales of aluminum products were 108.1 and 107.8 at least, down 2 each year.9%, 3.3%, electrolytic aluminum deep processing achieved operating income9.200 million, downgraded five years ago.5%, mainly due to changes in the price of aluminum products (according to wind data, the national aluminum ingot market price in 2018 averaged 14,225 yuan / ton, which can be downgraded by 1.7%), the price of raw material alumina increased (according to wind speed data, the average price of alumina in Henan in 2018 was 3011 yuan / ton, which increased by 3 alternately.3%) In addition, the collection of government funds for coal-fired generating units in Xinjiang also increased the cost of electrolytic aluminum business to a certain extent. At the same time, according to the company’s annual report, the company’s electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 146 tons. Among them, the company’s Yongcheng headquarters and its subsidiary Qin’ao Aluminum Co., Ltd. transferred a total of 66 transferred capacity indicators to Yunnan Shenhuo. Yunnan has abundant hydropower resources and low electricity costs for electrolytic aluminum businessAccording to the company’s April 18 announcement, the cost of electricity for electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan from 2020 to 2024 was only zero.25 yuan / degree, and the power generation cost of this headquarters is about 0.35 yuan / degree), it is expected that the company’s overall profitability will be improved after its commissioning. Subsidiary Xinlong Mining plans to implement debt-to-equity swaps, and the company’s capital structure is improved. According to the company’s February 19 announcement, the company proposed a shareholder meeting of Shenhuo Group, a joint-stock company of Henan Assets Shenhuo Conversion and Development Fund, to increase capital in subsidiary Xinlong Mining.7.5 billion yuan, the capital increase was used to repay bank loans.The main body of Xinlong Company is Liangbei Coal Mine. The original production capacity was 90 digits. In April 2018, the nuclear capacity increased to 240 digits / year.Currently, Liangbei Coal Mine is undergoing reconstruction and expansion.Xinlong’s commercial coal output in 2018 was 131.20 initially, 901 tons of coal thickness.74 yuan / ton, net profit 3.1.9 billion.The company’s overall asset-liability ratio is 85.82%, 18 years financial expenses 19.500 million US dollars, the company’s debt-to-equity swap will improve the company’s capital structure. It is expected that EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.17, 0.24, 0.30 yuan / share company’s 18-year performance is mainly derived from electrolytic aluminum business. Considering 19 years to date, the average price of electrolytic aluminum has replaced 6 respectively.1%, 1.9% (according to wind data). At the same time, the current supply of electrolytic aluminum is shrinking. We expect EPS to be 0 in 19-21.17, 0.24, 0.30 yuan / share, PE26 in 19 years.04 times, we expect the electrolytic aluminum price to fluctuate slightly in 19 years, but the supply of reorganized industries is clear, demand is picking up, aluminum prices are expected to rise, and the price of raw materials alumina is falling.Currently comparable companies have an average PE of 19 in 19 years.82 times, giving the company a 28-year PE estimate of 28 times, a reasonable value4.76 yuan / share, maintaining the “overweight” rating. Risk reminder: the cost control is lower than expected, the coal price and aluminum price are lower than expected, and a large amount of asset impairment losses are accrued.

Huafu Fashion (002042) 18-year performance express report comment: 18 years return to the mother net profit for ten years +15.

14% initial growth has improved

Huafu Fashion (002042) 18-year performance 北京spa会所 express report comment: 18 years return to the mother net profit for ten years +15.

14% initial growth has improved

Brief performance review On February 27, 2019, the company released a performance report: It is estimated that the total operating income for 2018 will be 143.

0.6 billion, ten years +13.

57%; net profit attributable to mother 7.

80 trillion, +15 for ten years.


In the company’s 2018 annual performance guidance, the expected net profit attributable to the parent is 7.


810,000 yuan, ten years + 10%?
+ 30%.

The single-quarter revenue in the fourth quarter is expected to decline in advance, affecting the expected revenue growth rate: in the fourth quarter of 2018, the single-quarter revenue is expected to be 35.

720,000 yuan, at least -4.


In terms of single quarter 北京桑拿洗浴保健 revenue, the company’s total operating income for Q1, Q2 and Q3 was 30.

3.4 billion, 37.

$ 5.6 billion and 39.

4.4 billion, the previous growth rate was 30.

96%, 21.

12% and 14.

23%, revenue growth rate starting quarter by quarter.

We believe that the company’s revenue growth rate will reach the fastest expectation in 18 years. The downstream demand will weaken in the second half of the year, and the company’s order price and quantity will be affected to some extent.

The 160,000-spindle high-end color spinning project in Vietnam was completed and reached production, providing continuous growth momentum: As of February 22, 2019, the company’s fund-raising project “Huafu (Vietnam) 160,000-spindle high-end color spinning project has been completed.

The project plans to raise funds for the budget.

300 million US dollars, the total amount of funds raised was 9,891.

US $ 930,000, the balance of the balance was used to permanently replenish working capital.

At present, the company’s yarn production capacity covers five major production areas in Zhejiang, Huanghuai, Yangtze River, Xinjiang, and Vietnam. In the future, it is expected to rely on the national belt and road strategy to form a globally balanced layout.

The repurchase program has been actively implemented since October 2018, and the cumulative share repurchase ratio has reached 3.

12%: On October 22, 2018, the company announced that it will repurchase the company’s shares through its own funds through centralized bidding transactions. The total amount of funds to repurchase shares is RMB 3?
600 million yuan, the price of repurchased shares does not exceed 10.

00 yuan / share.

As of January 31, 2019, the company gradually repurchased 4,745 shares of the company through centralized bidding transactions.

900,000 shares, accounting for 3 of the company’s total share capital.


The investment proposal for 2018-2020 predicts that the net profit attributable to the mother will be 7, respectively.


70,000 yuan, currently the corresponding PE is 12 respectively.


1x, maintaining level.

Risks Raw material fluctuations, government subsidy changes, order fluctuations, exchange rate changes

Broadcom Integration (603068): Continue to Benefit ETC & TWS Trends

Broadcom Integration (603068): Continue to Benefit ETC & TWS Trends

Investment Highlights: Industry Event 1: The Ministry of Transport’s website was released on November 4, 2019, with 543 new ETC users nationwide.

230,000 (average 67.

90,000) to complete 118 of the week’s tasks.


Since May 15, the number of ETC users 7602 has gradually increased across the country.

240,000, completed 11017 supplementary distribution tasks.

69% of 880,000.

As of October 31, there were more than 15,669 ETC users across the country.

920,000, completed the total target of 19,085.

560,000 of 82.


Industry event 2: Apple released a new generation of Bluetooth headset AirPods Pro, the domestic price of 1999 yuan.

The biggest feature of this upgrade is the addition of an active noise reduction function. According to Apple’s instructions, it can automatically adjust the best sound effect, and can switch between noise reduction mode and transparent mode through the touch-type headphone handle.

  Corporate events.

The company announced the 2019Q3 quarterly report on October 29, with 19Q3 revenue of 4.

80,000 yuan, + 291.

13%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

09 million yuan, +430.

51%; 19Q3 single quarter gross profit margin 36.

61%, net sales margin 22.


  The daily average number of new users of ETC is still at a high level, and the company will continue to benefit.

In our report, “ETC Drives Revenue Growth in 19Q2 and Strong Guidance to 19Q3”, we mentioned that “we estimate that the average daily ETC user increase from August 14 to 27 will be around 690,000, which is far more than the daily average of 19Q1.

60,000, we estimate that the number of new ETC users in 19Q3 is expected to grow significantly from the previous quarter. ”

Combined with the latest number of ETC users announced by the Ministry of Communications in Industry Event 1, the current average daily completion volume is about 67.

90,000, which is still at a relatively high level compared to 19Q3. We judge that the company will continue to benefit from the rapid growth of ETC users.

  Apple AirPods Pro will continue to detonate the TWS trend, and the company will also benefit.

AirPods Pro adds active noise reduction function, which can switch between noise reduction mode and transparent mode. We judge that AirPods Pro’s breakthrough in noise reduction will lead to continuous improvement of the TWS industry’s functions.

Combined with the trend forecast, the number of TWS is expected to reach 78 million in 2019 and will reach 1.

With 100 million units, the TWS industry is in a state of continuous explosion, and we believe the company will continue to benefit.

  In 19Q3, the company benefited from ETC’s high revenue and profit growth.

Company 19Q3 revenue 4.

80,000 yuan, + 291.

13%, net profit attributable to mother 1.

09 million yuan, +430.

51% was driven by national policies, increased sales of ETC products, and increased demand in the related Bluetooth market. Revenue growth was in line with our expectations.

The gross profit margin in 19Q3 also increased by 1 from the previous month.
69pct, but the improvement is weaker than we expected.
  profit prediction.

We lower the company’s gross margin assumptions and predict the company 2019?
The EPS in 2021 will be 2.

19, 3.

22, 4.

13 yuan / share.

We give company PE (2019) 50?

57x, corresponding to the reasonable and reasonable value interval 109.


83 yuan, given to the company PS (2019) 12.


50x interval, corresponding to a reasonable reasonable value interval 110.


93 yuan, carefully considering that we believe the company’s reasonable value range is 109.


93 yuan / share, maintain “previous market” rating.

  risk warning.

The ETC chip 厦门夜网 industry may have new competitors in the future.

Peach and plum bread (603866) in-depth analysis report: the space for hegemony and short-term guarantee is broad and not afraid of the comer

Peach and plum bread (603866) in-depth analysis report: the space for hegemony and short-term guarantee is broad and not afraid of the comer

The baking industry has a bright future and the incubation leader in the short-term insurance field.

Taoli bread, as a domestic short-guarantee baking leader, has the advantages of efficient operation and scale. It is expected to continue to increase market share and continue to grow steadily.

Firmly optimistic about the company’s development and absolute leading potential.

Give “Buy” rating, target price of 50 yuan.

Bake the faucet, precipitate for more than 20 years, and start a new journey.

The company is a leader in the domestic baking industry. Its products include bread and cakes, moon cakes and rice dumplings, and it has the largest single products such as cooked and yeast bread. The baking industry ranks second in market share (3.

3%), the bread and pastry segment is the first, and the short-term guarantee is absolutely leading.

The company has been established for more than 20 years. It has been focusing on the short-term guarantee baking industry, refined products, and expanded nationwide. After three stages of development, it has formed a national sales network and capacity distribution. It has 18 production bases across the country and covers over 230,000 retail outlets.terminal.

The company achieved revenue / net profit in 201956.


800 million, CAGR21 from 2013 to 2019.

5% / 17.


Last week, the founder’s low-level transfer of equity to the employee shareholding plan further deepened the binding of core employees. In the future, the company is expected 青岛夜网 to start a new development journey and fully capture the growth dividend of the baking industry.

Baking industry: continuous prosperity development and short-term guarantee hatching leader.

Domestic baking is a growth industry. According to Euromonitor statistics and forecasts, the retail scale in 2019 will be 231.7 billion US dollars, and the CAGR will be 10 in 2019-2024.

5%, which is higher than the segmented food and beverage sectors such as liquor / dairy products.

Both staple food and leisure demand are expected to induce the industry to continue to expand tolerance, change the penetration of Western-style culture, the trend of bread staple food becomes inevitable, and the variety of casual tastes will continue to stimulate baking consumption.

From the perspective of the competitive landscape, the country is still relatively fragmented and needs to be improved (CR5 = 10 according to Euromonitor statistics).

6%), while the short-term guarantee meets the health needs, stable demand and broad space & barriers are notable characteristics. In the future, it will hatch into a baking leader.

Under the following circumstances: ① Changbao’s growth rate is expected to gradually change under the consumption upgrade; ② China Insurance benefits from consumption upgrade, but the single product space is limited and the life cycle is short, it is expected that it will be difficult to hatch the baking leader; ③ Bakery is a long-term upgrade trendHowever, due to the low profitability and the difficulty of national replication, it is also difficult to hatch the baking leader.

As a benchmark for Japanese baking, Yamazaki has a market share of up to 24%, and it has won the ability to break through the creation of large single products, national production capacity layout, and efficient channel operation capabilities.

Taoli barriers: product-based, channel is king, national layout.

1) Efficient daily distribution and channel management and control capabilities. It has 18 geographically managed production bases covering more than 230,000 retail terminals. It has strong direct control of the direct sales / distribution system / third-party logistics, and has penetrated the company culture and standards throughout the system to achieveNearly 60% daily distribution ratio / 7% return rate (the industry average is about 20% / 15%).

2) Product excellence and explosions: The company has extremely recognized the quality and space of single products, controlling 30+ varieties. The reasons for explosions are ① continuous overseas learning / transfer of equipment, ② product replacement / elimination, ③ high qualityraw material.

3) Outstanding national layout capabilities: The short-term national coverage layout tests the dynamic matching capabilities of market development / channel and distribution control / capacity allocation. The company has been working on this and successfully explored two models (recursion & island hopping), Continue to promote the layout of new markets; mature markets through channel sinking & years of consumer education, and to match production capacity upgrades to promote growth.

Not afraid of short-term challenges, look forward to long-term space.

We predict that the investment scale of the baking industry will be nearly 400 billion yuan in 2030. Considering the continuous increase in market share, it is estimated that the company’s revenue will exceed 10 billion yuan in 2023 and more than 20 billion yuan in 2030.

Against the background of the prosperity of the baking industry, short-term industry competition has intensified: ① Dali has a strong short-term guarantee, ② online and offline companies have settled in China Insurance, and ③ channel brand expansion.

Considering the staple food and leisure demand / short-term barriers / channel characteristics, we believe that new entrants will not stop Tao Li from becoming the absolute leader in the industry: ① The company’s products are mainly staple foods, with stable demand / wide space and competition barriers to ensureLong-term and steady growth, meanwhile, the company has both China Insurance Development Capability.

② The short-term insurance industry has high barriers / national fragility is large, and Dali has begun to take shape in the short term / long-term needs to be observed. If successful, it can share the baking market dividends.

③ The domestic channel structure is complex, and the chain KA or convenience store absolute leader has not yet formed, so the channel brand has only 4.

4%, the short-term impact of materials is small; the long-term transition of convenience stores and other channels to expand, the company is expected to exceed the product and scale advantages to enter the foundry mode.

Risk factors: the downturn in the consumption boom, the deterioration of the competitive landscape, and food safety risks.

Investment suggestion: As the absolute leader in the domestic short-term insurance industry, the company has accumulated high-efficiency operation capabilities and scale advantages. It is expected to continue to increase market share in the future and is optimistic about the company’s long-term growth.

Forecast company EPS 1 for 2019/2020/2021.

37 yuan, giving a target price of 50 yuan, corresponding to 42/36 times PE in 2020/2021, covering the first time with a “buy” rating.

China National Travel Service (601888): Duty-free performance in line with expectations in Shanghai stores or try a new model of domestic tourists booking

China National Travel Service (601888): Duty-free performance in line with expectations in Shanghai stores or try a new model of domestic tourists booking

Event Overview The company released its 2019 performance interim report, and achieved operating income of 243 in the first half of 19 years.

$ 4.4 billion / +15.

46%, net profit attributable to mother is 32.

79 ppm / +70.

87%, net profit after deducting non-attribution is 2.5 billion / + 30.


Operating analysis revenue and project split-up: In the first half of 2019, tax-free revenue increased by 53%, and China Exempted Net Profit was 25.

36 ppm / + 36%, the interim report performance was basically in line with expectations: the travel agency business achieved operating income5.

9.9 billion (Transfer 100% equity of China Travel Headquarters to China Tourism Group, the controlling shareholder, and delisted since February).

The gross profit margin remained stable in the first half of the year, of which the gross profit margin of duty-free goods was 52.

3% (2018H1 gross margin was 52.

5%), the gross profit margin of taxable goods is 32.

1%, an increase of 4.

5 points.

On the day of the sub-project split, Shanghai Duty Free Shop realized tax-free income73.

77 ppm, revenue increase 35.

4.3 billion, attributable profit to 3.

20,000 yuan (VS 2018H1 profit is 2.

15) (Consolidated consolidated statements since March 2018); Sanya Haitang Bay Duty Free Shop realized tax-free business income51.

81 ppm / + 22%, achieving a profit of 8.

3.3 billion / + 5.

6%; Capital Airport duty-free shops (including T2 and T3 terminals) realized tax-free business income43.

65 ppm / + 20% (T2 and T3 深圳夜生活 internal transaction data are excluded), and China has achieved 0 profit.

95 trillion; Hong Kong Airport Duty Free Shop realized tax-free business income12.

9.6 billion / + 26.

5%; Guangzhou Airport Duty Free Shop realized tax-free business income8.

4.4 billion / + 66%.

Among the existing projects, Sanya and the Capital Airport grew rapidly. Due to the high growth rate of Shanghai Duty Free Shop due to consolidation, excluding the impact of consolidation time on the growth rate exceeded 30%. Guangzhou Airport Duty Free Shop achieved high growth due to increased operating capacity and expansion.

Breakthroughs in several operating highlights-1) In the case of a weak exchange rate environment.

Scale effect and stable gross profit margin under the influence of the integration of Japanese and Japanese procurement systems.

2) Withdraw about 0.

The stock price of 99 million stocks fell, and the ratio of provision for falling prices was approximately one.

5%, at the same time, inventory prices fall back or recover 1.


The reversal or distortion did not affect the current profit and loss, indicating that the company is cautious in accruing superiors in inventory products, but the sales performance of the products was better than last year’s expectations.

3) Exchange loss is 0.

370,000 yuan, 0 in the same period last year.

520,000 yuan, the impact of the yuan in the second half or relatively pessimistic.4) The investment invitation for the construction of the Hexin Island project has proceeded as planned. At present, the investment invitation for 75 shops, 55 brands and more than 19,000 square meters has been completed.

Investment Logic-In the short term, the expected opening of duty-free shops in the city in 19 years and the expected adjustment of policies will be implemented. The domestic consumption potential and the return of overseas consumption will be precipitated in the tax-free domestic airports or ports. The growth of existing projects will remain healthy.

In the long run, the tax exemption scenario and the continued expansion of internationalization, policy support (supporting tax exemption to combat purchasing) and support for consumer return.

From the liberalization of the tax exemption policy for outlying islands to broadening the purchase crowd, Sanya Haitang Bay Duty Free Shop can do this. Shanghai and Beijing Airports benefit from tax exemption from the increase in unit prices of tax-exempt customers and the trend of consumption return.

There is still room for marginal improvement in 19 years. Duty-free shops in Shanghai opened for eight months. The official public number of China Tourism Group stated that it will provide duty-free goods booking services for domestic tourists who are leaving the country.Pick-up, domestic duty-free shopping policy before departure is expected to break through.

Profit forecast and investment advice do not consider 19-21E performance in the case of alternative travel agency business42.

6/54/67 billion, with a growth rate of 40% / 26% / 25%, EPS2.



4 yuan, PE 44/35/28 times, maintain BUY rating.

Risks suggest that the gross profit margin has risen less than expected; the domestic tax-free shops have fallen short of expectations; the domestic tax-free business has been liberalized; the RMB exchange rate has continued to depreciate; the stock tax-free stores have performed worse than expected due to the weak economy.

Shuanghui Development (000895): 3Q19 results improved more than expected

Shuanghui Development (000895): 3Q19 results improved more than expected

The third quarter 19 performance was better than expected The company’s 2019 third quarter report results: from January to September realized total operating income of 419.

900 million (+14.

6%), net profit attributable to mother 39.

400 million (+8.

0%), of which 3Q income +28 per week.

1%, net profit attributable to mother +10 for ten years.

9%. As the fresh meat and frozen products and the meat products business showed an improvement in profit, the performance improvement rate exceeded expectations.

Development Trend 3Q19 Fresh frozen products benefited from the sales of frozen products, and profits increased greatly.

Benefiting from the selling of low-cost frozen meat stocks, although the slaughter volume in 3Q19 was affected by the increase in pig prices and the decline in the number of live pigs, the range of impact was reduced by 28%, but the reduction in fresh frozen products only decreased by 3%, plus the priceFavorable progress, 3Q fresh frozen products achieved a significant increase in revenue and profit.

The company is aware of this round of rising pig prices. Since last year, pig prices have continued to keep frozen meat reserves, and sold off when the pig prices increased rapidly in 3Q. Looking forward 深圳桑拿网 to 4Q, we judge that the company can still enjoy the benefits of increased frozen products.

3Q company inventory 77.

600 million, compared with 2Q7.2 billion, which continues to increase. We judge that in addition to the impact of rising average prices, we may also benefit from the increase in the amount of frozen meat imported from the United States.The current shortage of pork supply is expected to continue to stimulate the growth of frozen meat imports in the United States in 4Q and 2020, which will help the company to hedge its upstream and downstream costs.

In the third quarter of 19, the volume of meat products increased steadily and the ton profit improved significantly.

The company said that since 2019, the company has raised the price of meat products five times due to cost increases. After increasing the price and range in July, the average price of 3Q meat products rose by + 7% while the sales volume remained stable.

The 3Q single season meat product tonnage benefited from low-cost frozen meat cost hedging, price increase, product structure adjustment, management and technological innovation, etc., reaching a high of about 3,300 yuan / ton.

We judge that 4Q19 benefited from the low-cost domestically produced frozen meat in the previous period and the continued increase in US imported frozen meat. The ton profit of meat products is expected to remain high. With the further rise in pig prices in 2020, and the digestion of domestic frozen meat inventory, the ton profit of meat productsCompared with 2H19, it will decrease.

However, the company said that it is expected to continue to increase the price of pork and adjust its structure with rising pork prices in 2020.

We think the company has shown good cost control ability in the upward cycle of pig prices.

Earnings forecast and cost hedging due to low-cost frozen meat exceeded expectations, raising 2019/2020 revenue forecast3.

4% / 7.

1% to 579/67 billion, raising the EPS forecast for 2019/2020 by 8.

2% / 10.

7% to 1.


70 yuan, correspondingly raised the target price by 8% to 30.

7 yuan, corresponding to 19 in 2019/2020.


2x P / E. Maintain Outperform rating. Current price corresponds to 2019/2020 16.


5x P / E, with 17% upside.

Risks Raw materials fluctuate, industry demand changes, industry competition intensifies, and food safety risks.