Peach and plum bread (603866) in-depth analysis report: the space for hegemony and short-term guarantee is broad and not afraid of the comer
The baking industry has a bright future and the incubation leader in the short-term insurance field.
Taoli bread, as a domestic short-guarantee baking leader, has the advantages of efficient operation and scale. It is expected to continue to increase market share and continue to grow steadily.
Firmly optimistic about the company’s development and absolute leading potential.
Give “Buy” rating, target price of 50 yuan.
Bake the faucet, precipitate for more than 20 years, and start a new journey.
The company is a leader in the domestic baking industry. Its products include bread and cakes, moon cakes and rice dumplings, and it has the largest single products such as cooked and yeast bread. The baking industry ranks second in market share (3.
3%), the bread and pastry segment is the first, and the short-term guarantee is absolutely leading.
The company has been established for more than 20 years. It has been focusing on the short-term guarantee baking industry, refined products, and expanded nationwide. After three stages of development, it has formed a national sales network and capacity distribution. It has 18 production bases across the country and covers over 230,000 retail outlets.terminal.
The company achieved revenue / net profit in 201956.
800 million, CAGR21 from 2013 to 2019.
5% / 17.
Last week, the founder’s low-level transfer of equity to the employee shareholding plan further deepened the binding of core employees. In the future, the company is expected 青岛夜网 to start a new development journey and fully capture the growth dividend of the baking industry.
Baking industry: continuous prosperity development and short-term guarantee hatching leader.
Domestic baking is a growth industry. According to Euromonitor statistics and forecasts, the retail scale in 2019 will be 231.7 billion US dollars, and the CAGR will be 10 in 2019-2024.
5%, which is higher than the segmented food and beverage sectors such as liquor / dairy products.
Both staple food and leisure demand are expected to induce the industry to continue to expand tolerance, change the penetration of Western-style culture, the trend of bread staple food becomes inevitable, and the variety of casual tastes will continue to stimulate baking consumption.
From the perspective of the competitive landscape, the country is still relatively fragmented and needs to be improved (CR5 = 10 according to Euromonitor statistics).
6%), while the short-term guarantee meets the health needs, stable demand and broad space & barriers are notable characteristics. In the future, it will hatch into a baking leader.
Under the following circumstances: ① Changbao’s growth rate is expected to gradually change under the consumption upgrade; ② China Insurance benefits from consumption upgrade, but the single product space is limited and the life cycle is short, it is expected that it will be difficult to hatch the baking leader; ③ Bakery is a long-term upgrade trendHowever, due to the low profitability and the difficulty of national replication, it is also difficult to hatch the baking leader.
As a benchmark for Japanese baking, Yamazaki has a market share of up to 24%, and it has won the ability to break through the creation of large single products, national production capacity layout, and efficient channel operation capabilities.
Taoli barriers: product-based, channel is king, national layout.
1) Efficient daily distribution and channel management and control capabilities. It has 18 geographically managed production bases covering more than 230,000 retail terminals. It has strong direct control of the direct sales / distribution system / third-party logistics, and has penetrated the company culture and standards throughout the system to achieveNearly 60% daily distribution ratio / 7% return rate (the industry average is about 20% / 15%).
2) Product excellence and explosions: The company has extremely recognized the quality and space of single products, controlling 30+ varieties. The reasons for explosions are ① continuous overseas learning / transfer of equipment, ② product replacement / elimination, ③ high qualityraw material.
3) Outstanding national layout capabilities: The short-term national coverage layout tests the dynamic matching capabilities of market development / channel and distribution control / capacity allocation. The company has been working on this and successfully explored two models (recursion & island hopping), Continue to promote the layout of new markets; mature markets through channel sinking & years of consumer education, and to match production capacity upgrades to promote growth.
Not afraid of short-term challenges, look forward to long-term space.
We predict that the investment scale of the baking industry will be nearly 400 billion yuan in 2030. Considering the continuous increase in market share, it is estimated that the company’s revenue will exceed 10 billion yuan in 2023 and more than 20 billion yuan in 2030.
Against the background of the prosperity of the baking industry, short-term industry competition has intensified: ① Dali has a strong short-term guarantee, ② online and offline companies have settled in China Insurance, and ③ channel brand expansion.
Considering the staple food and leisure demand / short-term barriers / channel characteristics, we believe that new entrants will not stop Tao Li from becoming the absolute leader in the industry: ① The company’s products are mainly staple foods, with stable demand / wide space and competition barriers to ensureLong-term and steady growth, meanwhile, the company has both China Insurance Development Capability.
② The short-term insurance industry has high barriers / national fragility is large, and Dali has begun to take shape in the short term / long-term needs to be observed. If successful, it can share the baking market dividends.
③ The domestic channel structure is complex, and the chain KA or convenience store absolute leader has not yet formed, so the channel brand has only 4.
4%, the short-term impact of materials is small; the long-term transition of convenience stores and other channels to expand, the company is expected to exceed the product and scale advantages to enter the foundry mode.
Risk factors: the downturn in the consumption boom, the deterioration of the competitive landscape, and food safety risks.
Investment suggestion: As the absolute leader in the domestic short-term insurance industry, the company has accumulated high-efficiency operation capabilities and scale advantages. It is expected to continue to increase market share in the future and is optimistic about the company’s long-term growth.
Forecast company EPS 1 for 2019/2020/2021.
37 yuan, giving a target price of 50 yuan, corresponding to 42/36 times PE in 2020/2021, covering the first time with a “buy” rating.